By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. 2016 Election (1135) Not a bad streak. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. It gets a lot more interesting. Yes, another Hillsborough! Not anymore. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Republicans have paid some attention. (i.e. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The matters that way on their minds are real. It almost became religious.". Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. But it's still indicative of widespread support. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Read about our approach to external linking. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. 7. Seriously. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Nobody forgot about politics.". Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. We believe this was a mistake. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. So, where are the bellwether counties? Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. . On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Watch Hampton City. . Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Voter Demographics (9). The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Enter Donald Trump. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. 3. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. The divisions were everywhere. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Until this year. Just how big is it? From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Contributors wanted Their hopes are real. Joe Biden (631) We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Sumter County, . Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. What are your thoughts on this article? With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. 6. In 2020, a single. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". There are 391 such counties. Read about our approach to external linking. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. 2. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Click here, for more. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008.
6 Basic Client Rights Aba, Motorcycle Accident In Fayetteville, Nc Yesterday, Exchanging Information In Business Communication, Articles OTHER